Both Votes SNP?

I am frequently asked about voting strategy in the Holyrood elections to ensure a mandate for another Independence referendum. Considering the convoluted proportional representation d'Hondt system, many feel that voting for SNP in both the constituency and regional ballots ("Both Votes SNP") is playing into the Unionists’ hands as if you get the majority of First Past The Post seats it is so much more difficult to get the regional or list votes converted into seats.

The question is why do we not do something with Alba or the Greens to overcome this. After all, the Goal is Independence and we need all Independence parties in this together? The answer is that we have had that in the last two Holyrood elections in 2016 and 2021 which resulted in a SNP and Green Independence supporting majority in terms of seats but neither resulted in Westminster

Yes, it is harder to get list seats if a party has gained a majority of constituency seats in a region but it is possible. I like to see it as the constituency vote being for the person and the regional vote being for the Party. It is our insurance policy as it is not guaranteed that we will win all the constituencies that we currently have. This is how the SNP gained an outright majority in 2011 (before dilution with split vote strategies).

The Scottish Parliament's 129 seats are split between 73 Constituencies (first past the post, where we can maximise direct wins) and 56 Regional seats (proportional d'Hondt Additional Member System top-up to balance the overall result). It all depends on the percentage of regional list votes each party gets compared to the constituency result. The bigger the percentage, the more likelihood of gaining a regional seat (and remember the unionist regional vote will be split further than previously with the entry of Reform into the mix - giving each unionist party a smaller percentage).

In the latest December 2025 polling (Ipsos, Norstat, YouGov & Panelbase aggregates via Ballot Box Scotland and Believe in Scotland) the approximate averages are

• Constituency Vote: SNP 35% / Reform 19% / Labour 18% / Conservatives 11% / Lib Dems 10% / Greens 7% / Alba 0%

• Regional List Vote: SNP 30% / Reform 18% / Labour 17% / Conservatives 12% / Greens 11% / Lib Dems 10% / Alba 2%

Using these averages under AMS rules and adjusted for 2026 boundaries, projected seat outcomes would be:

• SNP-SNP - The SNP’s strong constituency haul of 55-60 seats leaves room for regional list top-ups. A consolidated 30% list vote secures 8-10 more SNP seats and the Greens picking up 8-10 seats from their 11% list share meaning a total Pro-Indy 68-73 MSPs which aligns with the SNP official strategy of 65+ SNP seats for an uncontested referendum mandate, as endorsed at the SNP Autumn Conference in Aberdeen.

• SNP-Alba/Green - Shifting 3-5% of votes on the regional list (Alba's polled ceiling), might net Alba 3-5 seats, however, this dilutes the SNP’s list vote below the 6-7% threshold needed for additional top-ups in most regions, costing the SNP 2-4 seats overall. The Greens would also lose 1-2 seats from a reduced pro-rata allocation. The net pro-Indy gain would then be minimal (1-2 seats at best) and risks a slimmer majority 64-71 seats and torpedoes the SNP single party threshold for a referendum push. This is essentially what has happened in the last two Holyrood elections in 2016 and 2021. There is historical precedent. In 2016, tactical SNP to Green list splits added around 2 pro-Indy seats but did not alter the majority. Alba’s 2021 debut (1.7% List) yielded 0 seats despite similar tactics. Their current 2% average is too low to unlock extra seats without cannibalising SNP/Green proportionality.

There is a real risk of fragmentation with Alba’s list-only strategy aiming for a Pro-Indy super majority, but experts like Sir John Curtice note it often backfires by handing seats to Unionist parties via the d’Hondt AMS allocation. SNP consolidation avoids this, especially with Reform UK siphoning 10-12% from other unionist parties, reducing the effect of tactical anti-SNP voting.

Of course, polls can shift so as we get nearer the election it’s important to check regional breakdowns but the Both Votes SNP path delivers the most Indy MSPs (68-73) while aligning with the SNP's roadmap for progress towards an Independence Referendum.

I hope that helps explain the strategy. In the end, it is a numbers game.